Name: Ashish
Email: rrlfkti2aa@yahoo.com
Date: Thursday - 17/Dec/115 - 20:57:38 GMT
Response:
Complex forecast for the next week. Baroclinic zone just south of the intl broder, will sharpen up and waffle north and south thru the weekend. Front pushes north tonite with weak LLJ of 30 kts, but deeper moisture will still be off to our south. There may be a few mid-level clouds (especially thru the interlake) before they lift out. Eventually, moisture and clouds coming up from a cut-off low over the central plains will have a tendency to back in from the southeast. At the same time, a disturbance in the SW flow will try to push drier air (especially above 850 hPa) east and shove the moisture and clouds into Ontario and Minnesota. Given the tug of war between the two systems, cloud trends (especially low clouds at 925 hPa and below) will be hard to pin-point for Friday. The exact frontal position and timing of its passage also adds uncertainty, as area of sharp temperature gradient starts slumping south late in the day. Cold advection at the surface continues thru the day Saturday, but by overnite into Sunday morning, warm advection aloft and weak LLJ may give us a shot at some elevated showers. Blocking pattern then begins breaking down as cut-off low is forecast to slide east. That allows upper ridge to build over the western plains and re-inforces cool surface high pressure down into S Manitoba. High pressure quickly shifts east and sets the stage for moisture return - ahead of what could be a potent low pressure system tracking NE up thru N Dakota and Minnesota. We may be affected by the deformation zone and/or trowal wrapping around the system. Enough cold air looks to work in for a change over to slushy snow on the backside.. Daniel

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